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I agree with your points in terms of mainstream users. A lot of my friends joined up right away when it was released just to see what it was all about, but quickly lost interest. Why? Because there was nothing there. All of their history, all of their photos, their friends were already on Facebook. But we're talking about mainstream users here. I'm going to guess (and no I don't have any sources to back this up other than my own observations so correct me if there's some official statistic out there) that Facebook's most active user are probably between ages 18-24. These are the users using social media in the most literal sense. The kids that post 100s of photos a month of their friends, plan parties and add every single person they meet as a friend. These people are not going to leave all that behind.
I do however agree with some of the previous commenters. The draw of Google+ is that it allows you to connect with people with similar interests and opens up opportunities for intelligent conversation. And let's be honest, the "mainstream" that uses Facebook, isn't interested in that, or at least doesn't see a reason to use an entirely new network for it. It hasn't failed by any means, it just attracts a different and maybe more select group of people. Success is relative
Great post! I've been struggling with ways to keep my brand engaging on Twitter and these are some great ideas! Thanks!