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Senior web strategist living in Montreal
You are so right when you say that G+ is a demographic research tool. That has been my opinion for a long time but your article is the first I read to bring it up.
On the mobile front, everybody is super excited about the possibilities but the challenge will be to get the local businesses, traditionnally very small shops, on board. Foursquare hit that wall and so will everyone for the next 5 years.
I have 2 issues with Facebook right now:
1) Facebook has always had usability issues and Timeline is making things even worse.
2) For me, Facebook is NOW, what is going on NOW. With Timeline, it is turning into the History channel and I am not interested.
I was hoping you would write abour Foursquare. I predicted on my blog (http://www.marcpoulin.com/2011/07/foursquare-gowalla-death-coming.html) that both Foursquare and Gowalla would disappear by 2014 (or essentially when the money would run out). They are doomed for failure for many of the reasons that you mentioned.
Just like you can't convert someone until he is a visitor, you cannot have a good online customer experience until the website is "usable". Bad usability always leads to bad online experience.
A single share button seems a bit radical but we certainly do not need 10. My number is 3: email, Twitter and Facebook. All other options are for the very small population of ultra-geeks with too much time on their hands.
Happy new year,