Having spent most of the past 23 years immersed in the mobile and broadband industries and tracking their evolution, I am convinced of two things pertaining to mobile broadband:
- When mobile broadband growth kicks in, it will change much about our personal media, applications, personal devices, and communications.
- It is happening slower than we ever thought it would, just as our predictions from the 1960s about moon bases and flying cars seem silly in hindsight. 3G wireless is failing to capture the imagination or much usage. Windows Mobile is up to version 6 - with 7 & 8 right around the corner - yet there are still many complaints.
When the mobile broadband shift happens the drivers will be new users in the developing world who reach the internet first by mobile devices rather than computers, and younger, tech-savvy users who want to stay connected all the time (As Tony Perkins has been tracking with his AlwaysOn site). I predict that when the shift happens we will see new industry leaders in the categories of content, applications, devices, and communications - rather than translating the PC-based leaderboard to the mobile world.
We might now be approaching a turning point. Choose your favorite paradigm: Reaching the Tipping Point, Crossing the Chasm , or simply passing the point of inflection. An example of this approaching shift is a recent report from Marketshare by NetApplications on overall browser marketshare. While the worldwide share of mobile web browsers in use is still less than 2% combined, in just over one year the share of iPhone browsing is 150% that of Windows Mobile. This may indicate that iPhone has broken the code and is leading a market evolution.
I expect to continue to examine these trends, assessing the drivers, and identifying what it will take for companies to win in the emerging mobile broadband industry. And I'd love to hear from you - what trends do see coming for mobile broadband?
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