Back in October of last year, I looked at what inTrade was predicting for the results of the upcoming 2008 US elections.
There has been a lot of press and a lot of drama, but the result have not changed much.  In a winner take all prediction, here is what inTrade is predicting now:
If you take the contracts with the highest price in each area, here is what the market is predicting today (Jan 18, 2007)
- Hillary Clinton is going to be the next President of the United States
- Someone from the Democratic field (not any of the Presidential Candidates) will be Vice President
- The Clinton / ??? Democratic ticket will defeat the McCain / Huckabee Republican ticket
- The Democrats will control the US Senate after the 2008 elections
- The Democrats will control the US House of Representatives after the 2008 elections
There have only been two changes. Â First, the market is predicting that Obama is no longer going to be the Democratic VP candidate. Â Second, the market predicting that McCain is going to lead a loosing Republican ticket, instead of Guliani.
The market behaved very strangely, and very poorly when predicting the New Hampshire outcome for the Democratic field.
The Clinton and Obama contract swung wildly in value, indicating a lack of "wisdom".
inTrade is also currently predicting a recession in 2008, but only with a 70% chance. Â My guess is that we are currently in one, so that might be easy money.
Oh, and to be open about any bias I have, I support Obama.
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