Following the mass shootings in Newtown, Aurora, Tucson, Virginia Tech and Columbine, massive fallout from opposition to increased gun control measures on Capitol Hill has begun. Since defeat last week in of the bipartisan Toomey-Manchin bill, the heads of many in Congress are beginning to roll.
Social media sentiment tracking shows the public is taking aim at foes of the bill in support of background checks. Despite kow-towing to the NRA, both in fear of losing their "A" rating and re-election support, many Senators who cast their votes "No" on Toomey-Manchin now are in the public's social crosshairs-as a direct resultof turning a deaf ear to social media listening.
The writing appears to be on the wall for these Senators pandering to the powerful NRA lobby, despite the public mindset-especially those in Congress up for midterm election, as evidenced by the 11 point plunge in approval since October for Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH). Coincidentally, our NetBase sentiment for the past month showed a similar 11 point net sentiment drop to -25% in favor of stricter gun control and background checks, as compared to -14% for 2012 overall.
Senator Susan Collins (D-ME) took great political risk when casting her vote "yes" for the Toomey-Manchin bill, much to the displeasure of her Second Amendment gun loving constituents in Maine. While Maine has one of the highest rates of gun ownership, the state also boasts one of the lowest crime rates in the country.
But Sen. Collins voted "yes" in good conscience, and with her sincere belief that mandating background checks may work to help stem the tide of the deadly gun violence occurring nationwide in recent years.
According to our NetBase gun control sentiment tracker, voter reaction to Toomey-Manchin's defeat (in particular, background checks) resulted in plummeting Net Sentiment: -21 for the week. An elevated Passion Intensity of 56 reflects the highly emotive and dissonant language surrounding social conversations.
Without speculating on the gamble these politicians took in voting against such stricter gun control measures as background checks-favored by 90 percent of Americans-the fact is that America's election game has changed. We witnessed this with President Obama's historic Big Data- driven second term win, and the same game is now being played out across social media channels.
Although an analysis by the Pew Center of public reaction to the defeat of Toomey-Manchin showed modest differences in states with Senators for, against or split on the bill, the report shows nationwide that 47% of the public are angry/disappointed and 39% are very happy/relieved.
When NetBase gauges US sentiment of concern regarding other social issues, social conversations for the past week reflect a negative sentiment across the board, as seen in our CrossTab chart below. Notably, the past week's negative public sentiment on gun control and background checks, at -8%, is still lower than concern about education, with a sentiment drop to -40%, as well as job and the economy, at -27%.
Clearly, with both parties equally disparaged by voters, listening to social media conversations that surround these social issues should be paramount to any politician.
While some pundits cynically laude the rewards the NRA appear to have reaped by working to defeat Toomey-Manchin, such as an increase of five million in their membership since the Newtown elementary school massacre, the death toll by gun carriers who have not undergone background checks continues to rise at an unprecedented pace. Americans are deeply concerned about how Washington has shamefully sidelined children's rights for the sake of political expediency and personal gain.
As we listen to voters across social media, two concerns are juxtaposed as burning issues: children and gun violence. The conversations show that it is time for local politicians to start listening to their constituents. As Children's Defense Fund President Marian Wright Edelman asks "Where is our anti-war movement to protect children from pervasive gun violence here at home?"
Today's Big Data is the voice of the voter. As the President and his strategic social media team have proved, it all starts with listening, responding and engaging with your constituents.