In its current form, I think Twitter will fail.
I recently got into this conversation with David Tedman from Invoke. We were talking about his product, BrightKit, which allows you to manage multiple twitter accounts, delay posts and collect stats on your links (If you haven't checked it out, I suggest you do -- Tweekdeck and BrightKit are an awesome combo).
I asked David if he was planning on integrating any of the other microblogging platforms such as Identi.ca (Laconica), Jaiku, etc. I especially emphasized Laconica because of the open nature of the technology.
Here was my main argument: It is rare that an internet communication medium ever becomes extremely popular for the long term when controlled by a private entity.
Take a look at internet history: News Groups (NNTP), Email (SMTP/POP3), Web Pages (HTTP), Voice over IP, Video Conference, etc. All have standards and generally operate in a distributed fashion.
Twitter is from-the-center command and control. They have the data and interactions. They control the end points. When twitter ends, the conversation ends.
Juxtapose this with something like Laconica (which I won't waste time explaining in my own words because Wikipedia rocks):
Laconica is an open source microblogging server written in PHP that implements the OpenMicroBlogging standard. So Laconica provides the potential for open, inter-service distributed communications between communities with functionality similar to Twitter. Enterprises and individuals can install and control their own services and data. Its first deployment powers the identi.ca openmicroblogging service.
Back to my original argument: Twitter will fail in it's current form. That was a bit of link bait, since Twitter can still adapt.
This could mean Twitter implementing the OpenMicroBlogging standard, turning into a non-profit foundation, and a hundred other ideas. However, in its current form of command-and-control I believe that Twitter's life is on a dying trend despite massive growth.
Communication mediums, especially microblogging, need to be based on a open, standardized, distributed protocol. Just like what OpenSocial is doing for social networks, so must the OpenMicroBlogging standard do for Micro Blogging.
In summary: I wish Twitter all the best (since I love the product and the ecosystem of applications that are built on it).
FYI: You can follow me at http://twitter.com/jordanwillms
Jordan Willms on Web Strategy, Social Media, Business and Technology
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