TED: Chris Anderson (Wired): Technology's Long Tail
I did not hear anything about the long tail in this speech.
I did not hear anything about the long tail in this speech.
- In business, one needs to forecast interests, and also build a product.
- Answer why and when about about the product
- The unified theory on technology trends states that there are four stages for a technology to get.
- Each Stage is a collision.
- These stages are:
- The technology must fall below a critical price.
- It's users must rise above a critical mass.
- It must displace another technology
- The technology must then commoditize
- WIFI has reached the 1st two stages.
- The DVD has gone through all the four above stages.
- Netflix could capitalize on the DVD model as DVDs was smaller in size to VHS tapes.As DVDs get cheaper, the premium brands like Sony loose out.
- Gene sequencing is falling in price to 40 million from billions a few years ago.At the same time, more genes are being found
- Another example is the generic drug. The effectof the generic drug is is dramatic. The cost of these is typicallyis now 50c a day. More people can be treated cheaply.
- Linux has now switched to critical mass.
- The hybrid car is another technology. Electric motors are now being introduced. This can lead to new era of automobiles
- VOIP is another example. Skype has 4M users.
- Harddrive space is being made almost free these days. This is an example of commoditization
- Fiber Optics: Calls to India costed $2 per minute in 1990. The prices are now about 7c a minute.
Eric Schmidt's short take on 3.0
- Web 2.0 is mostly Ajax.
- Web 3.0 is about applications in the 'cloud' which are fast and customizable. They are distributed virally: Social Networks, email.
- This is dramatically different from the mainframe and the PC era.
