There has been a great deal of focus on broadcast Mobile TV over the past several years, on the DVB-H and MediaFLO standards. Many European and Asian mobile operators, as well as Verizon Vcast, Sprint TV, and AT&T in the U.S. have launched or are launching 8 or 9 real-time, broadcast, mobile TV channels with great fanfare. New products, services, and press announcements have dominated the news at the last two annual CTIA conventions.

I am a skeptic about the success of real-time mobile TV though. Even back in 1992, Bruce Springsteen sang about 57 Channels and Nothin' On. And now in the age of declining TV viewership, increased (TiVo) time-shifting, explosive growth of YouTube, and other forms of media "snacking" and personalization, I have trouble seeing how real-time mobile TV will catch on.

Some analysts, such as in this Slash Mobile article, are still predicting explosive growth. Others are saying that the industry is solving the content, device, pricing, and network challenges - paving the way for growth (see my earlier post on 2007 Mobile Internet Scorecard for more info on the challenges the industry still faces.) Lately though, we are hearing some contrarian voices, such as BBC Worldwide mobile director Peter Mercier citing M:Metrics stats showing just a 1.2 percent UK take-up: "The hype you've seen at past 3GSMs about mobile TV is not warranted by the real growth. Mobile video itself is probably one of the least used applications on a device." And Jeff Herrmann, Nielsen Mobile VP , said: "Not that many countries outside Asia are using it in a big way, but proportionally fewer Americans are watching mobile TV than anywhere else surveyed".

It would seem a more efficient use of precious spectrum if users were to consume broadcast video, or even do some time-shifting with their mobile devices, using them as mini-TiVos. And there might be a small segment of users with real-time needs, such as watching sports events. But my bet is still on personal casting. I predict that if most people want to grab a quick video on their mobile device they are going to be more likely to watch some clips downloaded or stored on their device, such as from the Onion News Network or something more serious. I think the opportunity is to break the real-time broadcast TV paradigm and use this broadcast spectrum for mobile data.