A list of trends from M/C Venture Partners is getting much play in the press (see example in dBusiness News), I suspect because the list plays very much into the widespread interest in mobility convergence.
Several of the ten trends run either parallel or contrary to views I have previously voiced. Below are the trends outlined in the dBusiness News article that I think deserve commentary:
- Trend #1: "Mobile broadband is becoming the medium to bridge the digital divide worldwide". I am in complete agreement. Let's be sure to include WiFi in this mix, as well as the various 3G and planned 4G solutions.
- Trend #6: "Telephony solutions will morph into managed services for the enterprise." This is true for enterprise applications (such as Salesforce.com), as well as consumer applications (e.g., Gmail). And the adoption of the services approach for both enterprises and consumers will drive demand for Mobile Internet as an alternative way to access data. The recent SAP announcement about supporting the iPhone is strong evidence of these trends coming together.
- Trend #7:"Wireless ushering in the 'second coming of broadband'." True, and the "leader board" for devices, applications, content, and communications providers is likely to look different than today's.
- Trend #8:"Consumers are increasingly valuing safety and security on their mobile devices, helping to support the carrier's "walled garden" for mobile media." I believe we are seeing only the leading edge of safety and security problems in mobility and that it will have to get worse before it gets better. But I further believe the solution will lie in security apps and trusted sources, rather than walled gardens â€" similar to the pattern we saw on the Web with AOL (the ultimate walled garden) losing its early lead.
- Trend #9:"New seeds of application and network device innovation will be planted for future years." Agreed. There is room for new winners to emerge.
- Trend #10:"Network service providers will become key pillars of product and service innovation in 2008." It would be a challenge for network service providers to change their approach and try to innovate. They have too many years of acting like a monopoly/duopoly and managing innovation for their own interests. The trend this past year has favored the newcomers, with both Apple and Google being able to call the shots with the carriers like we have never seen before. Just as the carriers have fallen back to a "dumb pipe" role with DSL â€" despite their aspirations to be more value-added â€" the trend points to them taking the same role in mobile broadband.
In addition, there are two trends that I missed seeing in the dBusiness News article which also merit consideration:
- Relaxing of DRM controls for media, enabling consumers to enjoy media across various platforms and thus driving the growth of mobile consumption (and perhaps revenues and profits for media businesses â€" contrary to their fears)
- Growth of mobile advertising forms, that will help fund the new business models.
Anything else to add? What do you see coming in the next age of mobile broadband?
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