I am not much of a believer in the semantic web, Sir Tim's vision of a network of machines that understands content without much input from people.

For one thing, this vision is as old computers â€" or at least as old as transistor-based computers! it may not have been current in the world of vacuum tube computing. â€" and it has lost at every stage of computing to the competing vision that treats computing as a medium in the hands of human beings.

For another, "understands content" (the claim of a semantic Web 3.0) is itself an incredibly complex, soft-edge idea that cannot be reduced to any set of procedures no matter how extensive.

I will write about this extensively over the coming months, I think, but today I'll just point you to Ajit Jaokar's interesting article over at Open Gardens. Here is the synopsis:

"Beyond Web 2.0 is still more Web 2.0(for now). The full impact of Web 2.0 will be felt only in 2008 and beyond. The Semantic web is not the future of Web20. The full impact of Web 20 itself has yet to be felt because Web 20 technologies like cloud computing and 'umbrella social networks' (i.e. social networks encompassing the personal web, enterprise and the mobile web and incorporating presence) are still emerging and will gather momentum in 2008 and beyond."

I very much like the concept of 'umbrella social networks' â€" indeed, of umbrella media in general. More on that one soon too!