Is Threads now the leading real-time social media network, after beating out X in daily active users?

Late last week, data analytics platform Similarweb shared this chart, which sparked much celebration among the Threads community.

As you can see in this graphic, according to Similarweb’s data, Threads is now on par with X, in terms of daily active users, and is even exceeding it on some days.

That suggests that Threads is winning the broader race, which means that Meta’s bet that it could build a better Twitter was right, and is now paying off, in a potentially significant way.

So Threads is the winner, right? Threads is seeing more usage over time, and is beating out Elon’s social media project, which, by contrast, is steadily in decline.

Well, in general, that’s probably true, but it is worth noting a few considerations within this assessment.

First off, Similarweb data is not definitive, it’s based on estimates, extrapolated from its available pool of data resources.

As explained by Similarweb:

“Our machine learning algorithms are fed by millions of websites’ and apps’ first-party analytics, both proprietary and sourced through partners.”

So Similarweb has access to a wide range of sources, both through direct users and partners, which it then extrapolates, through its own methodology, to come up with its numbers.

But even at “millions” of inputs, that’s only a fraction of the information when you’re talking about 150 million users, as in this chart above. Essentially, Similarweb only has access to a portion of the actual data, and while those insights do generally provide an indicative view of broad trends, Similarweb data is not definitive, so you can’t necessarily take such as being entirely indicative of performance.

There’s also the matter of web traffic, which Similarweb also shared in the same update:

As you can see in this chart, X sees a lot more web visits than Threads, though the chart itself is indicative of the potential discrepancies in Similarweb data.

According to X’s own data, 88.55% of its usage comes via the mobile app, so only a small fraction of X’s traffic is coming via web usage. But this chart, based on Similarweb estimates, suggests that X is seeing close to 150 million daily web visits, versus less than 150 million app users.

How do those figures possibly match up? The most obvious answer would be that these are not unique visitors on the web, which skews the stats significantly, but Similarweb’s explainers don’t seem to account for the discrepancy.

For comparison, SEMRush estimates suggest that X is seeing around 123 million website visits per month, while X itself claims that it serves 250 million users daily.  

So there are some fairly wide shifts in interpretation here, which makes it hard to know what’s more indicative, or accurate in this respect.

What I would reiterate is that Similarweb estimates are generally indicative of trends, so even if Threads hasn’t overtaken X in average users quite yet, it’s clearly on track to do so in the near future.

Which is a credit to Meta’s app building expertise, and its constant improvement of Threads to make it a more valuable platform for tracking and discussing the latest trends. It’s not there yet, as many people still flock to X during major incidents, as shown with the recent murder of Charlie Kirk. But Threads is clearly improving, and driving more interest with a broader range of users.

As per their official claims, at last check, Meta reported that Threads is now up to 400 million monthly active users, while X claims that it’s serving 600 million monthly actives.

Given past discrepancies in X’s reporting, and its only auditable reported numbers showing a decline in usage in Europe, I doubt that X’s figure here is accurate, but either way, the trends point to Threads overtaking X in usage in the near future.

Does this really matter to your social media marketing approach?

Well, probably not, as you should be going where your audience is, and if the people you really want to reach are on X, then it may well be of more valuable to your business, regardless of overall usage (note: you can track X trends, based on keywords, in X's pro analytics, though it's only available to Verified organizations).

But in terms of broader shifts, and what's happening within the social media sphere, it's worth noting where attention is turning.