Two weeks from Election Day, the keys to the White House are dangling in the hands of the undecided, many of who are women, Latinos and youthful first-time voters. While these diverse groups of constituents cross the voter spectrum, they do share a common denominator-social engagement.
Following the debates, the national polls show the candidates in a virtual dead heat. However, when viewed from another perspective, and through variable lenses, by deploying NetBase social analytics we can monitor the issues behind shifting trends in candidate net sentiment-not only in real time, but also significantly through a customized menu of filters.
As an example, the NetBase shift in net sentiment this past week among undecided voters overall showed a gain of 29% for President Obama to Mitt Romney's 9% loss, for a weekly net sentiment of 37% and 38%, respectively-a huge 38 combined point shift. Considering the slim undecided voter population currently reported by leading polls-about 3% or less-single votes are clearly at stake.
It's important to note, however, that undecided social voter interests on specific issues, as well as the absolute gender gap, seem to trump-or in the least confound-linear pollster ratings. Viewed under the gender gap lens, a report by Nate Silver in The New York Times shows polls with a gender gap ranging from 33 (Washington Times/Zogby) to 8 (Washington Post/ABC), for an average gap of 18.
Using NetBase to cross-filter undecided voter data for the past week with the women's equality theme-including the jobs bill, economy, glass ceiling #bindersfullofwomen, equal opportunity, income equality-Obama loses 2 net sentiment points to Romney's 12 point gain, resulting in a one week sentiment for Obama of 19% and Romney 15% respectively.
As the traditional election media blitzkrieg reaches historic proportions in both camps, the social media precedent set by the Obama campaign in 2008 been surpassed. Romney, on the other hand, who is not as socially engaged as Obama, still has a Twitter profile describing him as "former Governor of Massachusetts."
Still, decided and undecided voters are predominantly concerned about the economy, jobs and social issues. And they're discussing these worries on social media channels that highlight the growing implications of tracking sentiment analysis and issues in social media to guide electoral campaign strategy, monitor trends and even forecast outcome. In the past week, when undecided social voter sentiment was cross-filtered in NetBase with jobs and the economy, Obama's -6% negative net sentiment rose 18 points and Romney's one point, for a weekly net of 12% and 28% respectively.
It appears that short of a strong showing of support from undecided women and men voters dedicated to women's equality to offset Obama's inferior sentiment on jobs and the economy, Romney may tip the meter.
As Election Day approaches, the swinging net sentiment among undecided voters as may well signal the propensity of undecided voters to make up their minds based on the "empathy" factor. According to a New York Times Opinion Page editorial, when voters were asked in other polls which candidate "cares about people like me" or "cares about the middle class," Obama had at least a 6 point lead over Romney.
Combined with the "empathy factor," some undecided voters will weigh in on the candidates' character, in particular, credibility. When we crossed undecided voters with our "reality check," our "credibility" filter-which gauges voter confidence in the candidates honesty, trust, truthfulness and believability-Obama's weekly net sentiment gain was 15 points, as compared to a Romney's 23 point bounce, for a weekly net sentiment of 19% and -2% respectively.
While the small sliver of undecided voters who may move the dial in two weeks represent a diverse spectrum of voters, their shared engagement in social media underscores the pivotal role played by social media to influence their vote, and by corollary, for them to influence. An unprecedented, unambiguous and unbiased electoral social pendulum has arrived for electoral strategic planning, tracking and analysis. The playing field now has a new set of rules.
As the #undecidedvoter Twitter trail at the end the final Presidential Debate surmised, hashtags like #facts and #substance, as well as #lesserevil are trending. The electoral social needle is quivering and, clearly, the candidates still have work to do. Following the final Presidential debate, our NetBase pendulum swung the lead among undecided voters to Obama, narrowly overtaking Romney's pre-debate single point lead by 3 points.
Clearly, the electoral social pendulum is in full swing, with hard issues on the block.